When Grandmothers Step In: Grandchild Care and Labor Supply Dynamics (Job Market Paper) [Draft]
Abstract: In the United States, many older women reduce work when a first grandchild arrives. I call this the "grandchild penalty.'' Using the Health and Retirement Study, I document that after a first grandchild is born, employment falls by 13 percent and earnings fall by 25 percent, driven by a sharp rise in grandchild caregiving. The central question is whether this shift reflects grandmothers' preferences or parents' childcare needs. To separate these forces, I exploit California's Paid Family Leave (CA-PFL) program, which reduced parents' demand for informal care. CA-PFL raises grandmothers' employment by 15 percent and reduces caregiving by 25 percent, indicating that family need drives a substantial share of the penalty. To quantify lifetime consequences, I develop a dynamic life-cycle model of grandmothers' work and caregiving decisions. Counterfactual simulations show that CA-PFL raises lifetime consumption by 1.4 percent, primarily through longer careers and higher retirement benefits. Raising the Early Retirement Age from 62 to 64 increases labor supply, but grandchild care attenuates the response.
Long-term Economic Distress and Growing Educational Inequality in Life Expectancy (with John Bound, Arline Geonimus, Timothy Waidmann, and Vicent Pancini) Epidemiology 36.3 (2025): 287-296. [journal link]
Displaced Workers and the Pandemic Recession (with Angela Guo and Pawel Krolikowski). Economics Letters (2023): 111071. [journal link]
Who Appears in the HRS Administrative Earnings File? Selection into SSA Linkage
Abstract: Administrative earnings records linked to the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) are widely used to measure lifetime earnings and projected Social Security benefits. Because access to these records depends on respondent consent and successful administrative matching, the linked sample may be selectively drawn from the full HRS population. This paper revisits and extends Haider and Solon (2000), who document non-random selection into the SSA-linked earnings sample for the original 1992 HRS cohort. I first replicate their analysis for the 1992 cohort and then extend the specification to four additional birth cohorts using cohort-specific and pooled logit models. Linkage rates decline by 34 percentage points across cohorts, from 83.6% to 49.3%. The gender gradient documented for the 1992 cohort attenuates among Boomer cohorts, while racial disparities widen and U.S. nativity becomes an important positive predictor of linkage. These results show that the 1992 selectivity profile does not generalize to newer HRS cohorts.
How do Retirement Plan Mandates Affect Labor Supply: Evidence from Microdata (with Adam Bloomfield and Melanie Wallskog)
Abstract: A growing number of states have implemented “auto-IRA” policies, in which firms must either offer an employer-sponsored retirement plan (ESRP) or enroll their employees in state-facilitated Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs), to increase workers' retirement savings. We evaluate the labor market implications of these policies using administrative data and the staggered implementation of these policies. For firms not already offering ESRPs beforehand, the introduction of auto-IRA policies generates substantial employment growth, consistent with workers valuing new employer-mediated benefits. This employment growth arises through the retention and hiring of higher-paid workers.
Understanding the Role of Long-term Economic Distress in the Growing Educational Gaps in U.S. Life Expectancy
(with John Bound, Arline Geronimus, Timothy Waidmann)
Synthetic Data Methods for Linked Survey-Administrative Data
(with Margaret Levenstein, Matthew Shapiro, Adam Shumway, Evan Totty, Gerardo Sanz-Maldonado)
Post-College Spatial Job Search and Gender Inequality (with Caitlin Treanor)
Job Loss Consequences and the Pandemic Recession (with Angela Guo and Pawel Krolikowski). Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary (2023).
Featured in Bloomberg, Crain's Cleveland Business
Revisiting Wage Growth after the Recession (with Roberto Pinheiro). Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary (2020).
Using Advance Layoff Notices as a Labor Market Indicator (with Pawel Krolikowski and Kurt G. Lunsford). Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary (2019).
The Evolution of the Labor Share across Developed Countries (with Roberto Pinheiro). Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary (2018).
Wage Growth after the Great Recession (with Roberto Pinheiro). Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary (2017).